Whatbs going up with contax

[Andi]

Marc,

thanks for your quick answer! I'm discussing this question with Dirk for some time now as he has become a proud ND owner and I'm considering to buy a 5D for my "old" C/Y lenses.

Maybe we can find a local dealer here to get the question answered by a side by side comparison prior to any buying decision.

Thanks & Regards

Andreas

 

[wang]

John,

Go for Sony R1. I think 5D is not cheap enough.

I have plenty of Leica and Zeiss lenses, all together 22 lenses which can fit to 5D but I am still willing to wait for Canon price to go down.

I think Canon is working hard to keep the price up. As a consumer, I wish to have a 8MP full frame body and I know Canon is fully capable of producing it. However, Canon will definitely not produce this kind of body because it will rock the boat and reduce the demand of 5D and 1DsII.

The price of 5D is still high, the reason I said high is because it has a fast rate of depreciation. While I am pretty happy with my lens collection and some of them actually earns money for me, the price of digitals is absolute volatile. The amount people pay for Canon digitals evaporates like mad.

I believe once the wave of market demand of 5D is over, Canon will come up with a cheap full frame body. The situation was a bit like Canon 300D 1 to 2 years ago. That camera was ground breaking cheap, but it was what Canon can do to stimulate the market.

So, shoot film while you can and wait for the cheap Canon.

 

[fotografz]

Depends on what you want to use a camera for really, and what your rate of use may be ... or how long you may want to keep a camera... doesn't it? Perhaps it's more about reaching the level of diminishing returns based on your personal needs for photography.

Up to now, rate of depreciation for digital was based on being in it's infancy as a technology. Not full frame and not all that good at higher ISOs was the way it was. The 5D changed that. Full fame, high performance imagery in a durable camera went from $8.000 to $3,000..

None of the "cheap" Canons or Nikons are built to the specs of the 5D. A little research would reveal that. Canon is no different than any company on Earth. They don't give you anything free. If it is less expensive, then it is cheaper in built quality and/or durability.

The 5D is a camera that one can keep, IF it meets your shooting needs. Small, light weight yet rugged and fast. A great platform to use C/Y lenses at their full focal length as designed. I for one do not appreciate paying big bucks for a C/Y wide angle like a 28/2, only to have it turned into a 45/2 which is really the definition of "horrible depreciation". Nor do I desire the resolution of the C/Y high performance glass to be "down graded" into a 8 meg sensor.

I do agree that waiting is always a good idea with digital. Not to get the cheaper model as suggested, but to get the better one once the price settles down in a year or two. I would bet the 5D will be around $2,000-$2,500 by then. I paid $2,900. for my USA one. It has already paid for itself with wedding work. I would NOT trust someone's wedding images to a Digital Rebel even if the Camera was $100. new ; -) It is a disposable camera doomed to devaluate. But because the 5D is such a good performer, and built like a tank, it's value (not resale price), will remain high for someone who actually uses the camera.

There are certainly differing philosophies concerning this issue. IMO, buying into a system that is doomed by their lens mount to be less than full frame. Requiring "new" digital lenses is manufacturer's marketing hype designed to keep their company alive as the world goes digital. Small sensors are a trap which will eventually reveal itself as meg count increases. I had very high hopes for the Contax N digital. The mount was the only other one out there able to capture at full frame AND offering lenses of superb quality. Kyocera has dashed those hopes of a ND2. Think of it: a 12 meg full frame CCD sensor in an Contax camera sporting the excellent N lenses : -( It would have been very doable today with the level of digital advancement ... IF Kyocera had someone in power that cared about photography.

It's not like that they didn't have the capital to do it. Kyocera is a mighty corporation, and many mighty corporations fund marginal products out of passion for something to burnish the corporate image, rather than as a profit center ... GMs Corvette comes to mind. But if there is no passion, then it's all business.
Bye-bye Contax and all of it's possibilities. Leaving one large lens mount DSLR system, with a mighty corporation funding it's relentless development.

 

[dirk]

Hi

I think the question whether to stay with or to enter into the Contax N-System or to switch to Canon with an adapter or to Nikon et alii is discussed too often only from the perspective of image quality of the output.

IMO image quality is nowadays with all modern DSLRs already so good, that it will fullfill the needs of most amateur photographers up to 20cmx30cm prints. Since technology will improve so much over the next 2-10 years, it does not make sense to focus too much on the question: "is this model now better than that model".

This will change constantly. With Canon every 6-12 months, with Nikon, Olympus, Pentax and Minolta I guess also in the future every 12-24 months.

What is not that often talked about, but IMO very important, is the convenience and "feel" factor with a camera body and the whole system.

I do think that with amateur photographers, the decision whether you will use a camera long term or just leave it at home and use another one depends on this "feeling" when using a system.

If someone goes for a Canon or Olympus with Contax adapter solution, and is an amateur photographer, I doubt that he will use this combo very often.

Who REALLY likes to use stop down metering? Who REALLY wants to do this all the time - for each single shot? Would that be at all possible for most of your kind of shootings? These are the questions everybody has to ask himself.

I do believe that it is better to use a Canon with Canon lenses, a Nikon with Nikon lenses and a Olympus with Zuiko lenses just because of this convenience factor. Otherwise you "betray" yourself, arguing yourself into a camera system becuse you intend to use it with Zeiss lenses, but in reality, you will not use it that way over the long run.

There is no perfect camera system. Some are better with the lenses, some are better or cheaper with the sensor, but I have not seen yet a system, which is very good in both areas. It is always a compromise. Like Marc mentioned, Contax had the option with the N-System in the past to offer really a homerun. A "best of" solution for lenses and Camera. But they decided otherwise.

So every body who is in a buying decision should really think very long about this convenience factor. To stay with Contax and have all lenses in a cupboard does not make sense. Then it is better to by a cheap entry level DSLR system, and to use Zeiss glass for film only.

If you have N glasses, you have another option and this is the Contax ND. I have not made yet enough shots and testing and learning with my ND to make a real judgement. But in this forum are many ND owners and all what they say is that it is fine up to ISO 200/250 as long as you are willing to learn to use the strenght of the ND and avoid the weaknesses.

Since everything else is also a compromise, I am willing to invest time into the ND and learn to use it properly. If I realize in 6 months, that it will run me crazy and I can not live with its weaknesses, I will use my N-system for film only and buy any kind of then "best of" DSLR system at that time.

2 points regarding future developments:

1. I doubt that there will be a DSLR on the manual focus Contax line. As far as I heard it, no manufacturer is willing to invest so much money into a DSLR, if the manual focus market is shrinking that much. This is also the reason why I do not believe, that there will be any digital solution for the new Zeiss Ikon system.

IMO if Contax will have a revival at all, it will be with the N-system, since it is autofocus and optimized to be used for digital photography.

It is big and heavy I know, but the size of the chip and the newly designed N-lenses is the only way for Contax to compete against Canon et alii to be able to sell small but big enough amount of cameras and lenses to be profitable. This will be obviously a niche market, but Contax was always a niche player.

I do not believe that there will come a third Contax System with another lens mount. This would make so many Contax users angry, that it would kill the start immediatly and make it a flop. The only exception would be, if they would offer an adapter for ths N-lenses somhow.

But again, there is no sign yet at the horizont, that we will ever see a new Contax again. IMO Zeiss seems to earn more money with the license fees Kyocera has to pay them currently, than in finding a new partner and starting new again. It is not always the fault of Kyocera if you know what I mean.

I can understand this attitude partially. 12 months ago, it looked like that most of the manufactureres (except Canon and Nikon) will not survive at all in the photo-industry. Now with all the new joint ventures announced, this is a different story.

At the same time, innovation cycles in DSLR market are so fast that R&D kills you as a newbe. So why not wait 1 or 2 years until you see who survived and sensor prices are much cheaper and image quality a lot better?

I do think the same "wait and see" attitude would be beneficial for most of the Contax users too.

As long as it is only your hobby, you do not have to buy an expensive DSLR. You can by either a scanner or you invest only a small amount of money in an entry level system so you get already used to the pro and cons of DSLRs. IMO it will take months until you have really reached the limitations of the newest 6MP/8MP DSLRs and raw files - if at all. No matter whether it is a Nikon, Canon, Minolta, Olympus et alii.

2. Chip design will change so much, that we can not be sure, whether we really need in the future full-size chips. Read here:

http://www.rochester.edu/news/show.php?id=2367

I do think the bottle neck will be more the lens design with wide angles. The smaller the chip, the harder to make really good wide angle lenses. But we will definitely see big changes also over the next 10 years.

A DSLR is nothing to stick with for a longer period of time like it used to be with analogue cameras. And value goes always south and always fast south. So be careful how much you invest in it

 

[roberto1]

I agree with Dirk but: 1.- I do not think Kyocera might open the camera business ever again. It's not the way the japanese act. When they act, the never go against their previous acts. 2.- I do not know if the N-system can be remarketed. Maybe a new sensor comes up, much cheaper and in greater quality and resolution. But you have to engineer it, and you have to get guaranteed sales. 3 years for a lens mount to be discontinued is a huge time lap. Too much and too late to gain sales 3.- Very difficult to compete against the camera giants. 4.- We can't forget that in the digital era anything which sells in less than hundreds of thousands is not profitable, and Contax had always been a top quality product with a limited output. 5.- I do not know if we will ever see the contax name again, made by kyocera, by Cosina, marketed by Zeiss or by Sony or by anyone else. Would be great news (and the Rangefinder Zeiss Ikon is there). IMHO the only temporary measure for contax to survive is to provede as a stopgap a fully mechanical manual camera (as the S2, or S3). The toolings are there, the dies are there, the shutter is there and improved (hybrid version from Nikon). 6.- Talking with a sales rep in a shop, he told me that in the short-medium term, only 4 big names would survive in the camera industry, and you've guessed it: Canon, Nikon, Minolta and Pentax. Neither Leica nor Zeiss were invited to that party. And that is sad, really sad...

Regards Robert

 

[fotografz]

Good article Dirk. But that's a ways off yet. Which IMO is the problem in people's decision making process now, today. Everyone always seems worried what will be, rather than what is now. Is it good enough now? That should be the question.
For ex&le, I am absolutely positive that the next step in the ND would have been enough, no matter what came after it.

The point I was making is that the technology that allows fine work with good tonal range and low light photography is here now. I have found through experience that hyped major leaps forward are actually baby steps. Canon may boost meg count in a D6 to 16 megs, but it'll be an incremental step hardly noticeable to the 5D shooter. That's because a camera like the D5 is enough. It allows use of existing lenses not ones of limited use (Canon DX lenses cannot be used on their film cameras or any of the D series DSLRs). It allows use of used lenses at a reasonable price, not new expensive designs that are compromised in their performance one way or another.

I do agree that comfort zone with a system is underplayed and deserves more attention when making a decision. Not only with the Camera design itself, but the whole system. I also agree that use of C/Y lenses on another system body will be a deterrent to use because they are inconvenient ... and extremely difficult to focus on a DSLR even with a new screen.

However, that depends on what and how you shoot. I shoot wide open 90% of the time so stopping down isn't an issue. Focussing is an issue. Nothing focuses as fast and accurate as a Canon or Nikon AF DSLR. But if you're shooting landscapes rather than sports the C/Y wide-angles with added DOF of a wide are tops, where the Canon long lenses rule from 135 on up.

Frankly, I'm not a fan of the handling of almost any SLR/DSLR ... including Contax. The Nikons weren't bad because the AF lenses still had aperture rings. But in the end I only really love a Leica M and a Hasselblad V camera ... both of which are ancient designs refined over decades by use. Most of the rest have been necessary evils to get the job done. I've never looked forward to putting one in my hand : -)

 

[dirk]

@ Marc

I agree with you. That is why I said that the current modern 6MP/8MP models might be enough for most users already now.

The reason why I look into the future what might come just around the corner within the next months & years is, that this will give enormous price pressure on the current models.

So in case you really do not need it now, you can have either a 5D IMO in 12 months from now for below 2000 USD second hand, or there will be another Canon fullframe (like a D20+) with a price tag below 2000 USD within the next 12 months or both

Same scenario with all other brands, but most likely no fullframe (except maybe Nikon).

So IMO either someone should wait not to spent to much money (if he does not earn money with it), or go now for a cheap 6/8MP of the current line up.

Convenience can be found for sure with all brand names, as long as you use the manufacturer lenses with the same manufacturer body. AF will work, metering will work etc.

But as you and I stated, whether a Zeiss + adapter +"X" is still convenient enough depends on what kind of shots you are doing.

Since I have a 2 year old son, I am "forced" to spend a lot more time with family snap-shots, than I would have imagined in the past. Andreas has older kids, but family events play still a big role.

@ Robert

I agree with the brands you metioned (for 135mm). But I see still potential for Contax under specific conditions. I do not think that Kyocera will reenter the market. I know that they would be pretty cooperative if a new cooperation partner would be willing to take over the Contax boat.

IMHO the important question is, how expensive chips (fullsize and 2/3) will be over the next 2 years. If prices are dropping fast, two different alternatives would be possible. If prices do not drop fast, only one alternative is left-

Alternative A: Cooperation partner, who has the knowledge of a chip manufacturer

Alternative B: Buying the chip somewhere else.

Buying the chip somewheere else would make in Dollars only sense, if the prices would be lower than today, so that you can even reenter the market with a long term profit goal in mind without having a big market share.

A cooperation with a chip-manufacturer would be the ideal scenario and resolve all problems. Sony would be definitely a solution.

In both cases, it has to be a company with deep pockets to finance the first 2-5 years without any expected profit.

Lets play in theory the scenario with Sony:

Sony and Konica Minolta announced a joint venture for developping together in the future DSLRs with Konica Minolta mount. It would make sense to offer an adapter for this (if technically possible) to put Zeiss N-lenses in front of it.

Zeiss could design for Sony additional lenses either with a KM mount or with the Contax N mount. Depending on the contract of KM/Sony's joint venture, KM can say nothing against this. KM is in such a bad position, that they depend in my view more on Sony than Sony on KM.

Sony could look at the sales numbers over the next years and decide relaxed in the future, if and when they would like to make also bodies with the Contax name on it (either with KM mount or with Contax N mount).

So a very limited risk for Sony, no really new big invenstments at the beginning in a new system apart from the KM mount and Zeiss would also get the cheapest alternative to show its flag in the photo industry.

Just rememeber, Zeiss has apart from Sony nobody anymore as a coopeartion partner in the photo-indutry. No Hasselblad, no Rollei etc.

Nokia will definitely stay in the mobile business and Sony will go in my view slowly out of the P&S business as everybody else (no margins anymore). So if Zeiss does not find anything new with Sony or someone else, it is looking really bad for Zeiss.

 

[leeming]

Every once in a while we need this dreaming-up session to boost the morale. Thanks Dirk! I just realized that the last month I spent more time surfing on the net for camera news than on actually taking pictures... which is absurd. It is the joy of photographing that counts at the end, not "having the BEST camera" in hands, right? Cheers

 

[stan_parry]

Thanks Dick, These are very insightful and useful observations that come just at the right time for me and I suspect for many of us. I really would like to use my Scheider PC with Canon but not loose focal length with a 1.6 or so conversion factor. That leaves the Canon 5D but it feels like overkill for the level of photography I am capable of. The new Sony DSC R1 is certainly getting a lot of positive comments.

Thanks again.

 

[stan_parry]

Good points. What about Zeiss becoming like Tamron or Scheider and marketing their lenses for use with other cameras. It still doesn't answer the stop-down issue. I don't' think Contax will ever create new cameras but perhaps the lens Market for the Zeiss lenses might work. I don't know enough about the technical problems to speak with any confidence about such an approach.